地震活动性总体参量Rt在北京及邻区地震预测中的应用     

岳晓媛  武安绪  马梁 《地震地磁观测与研究》2019,40(6):28-34

采用地震活动性总体参量R_t方法,研究北京及邻区R_t值在中等地震前随时间的变化特征,分析跟踪地震发生前研究区域地震活动状态,探讨中等地震孕震过程的异常信息的变化特征。结果显示:当R_t值大于阈值0.84时,研究区域地震活动状态比较稳定,发生中等地震的可能性较小;反之,表明地震活动处于不稳定状态,具有发生中等地震的危险。检验R_t值的地震预测效能,预测效果比较理想,利用地震活动状态参量R_t研究北京及邻区地震活动状态,判定中等地震发生的风险性,具有一定预测意义。  相似文献   

基于自相似河网结构的河网消退系数Cs计算方法研究     

臧帅宏  李致家  黄迎春  李巧玲 《湖泊科学》2019,31(3):788-800

新安江模型河网汇流参数Cs对洪峰模拟影响较大，目前Cs的确定需依赖于大量的历史数据，因此Cs的确定成为无资料地区和资料匮乏区水文模型应用中亟需解决的棘手问题.本文基于参数的物理意义，通过自相似河网结构的假定，构建Cs与河网形态、流域下垫面特征的相关联系，提出基于河链蓄量方程的Cs估算方法，对半干旱、半湿润和湿润地区等不同水文气象分区的11个流域的Cs值进行推算并代入新安江模型中进行模拟，经比较发现，11个流域子流域Cs计算均值与新安江模型率定结果相近，说明该Cs计算方法是合理的.选取陈河、屯溪两个典型流域研究单元流域属性对Cs的影响，由结果可以看出Cs与流域面积、河链数、河宽呈正相关，与单元流域距离出口的远近呈负相关，这表明流域分块后各单元流域Cs值不一致，而新安江模型中采用相同Cs值对不同单元进行调节必然会造成汇流计算的误差.为进一步提高该方法在无资料地区的应用效果，将新安江模型汇流模块修改为每个单元使用对应的Cs计算值进行滞后演算，以陈河和屯溪流域为例采用新安江模型Cs率定值、Cs计算均值以及修改后新安江模型3种不同方案进行模拟比较，从模拟结果可以得出，修改后的模型具有明显优势，将模型参数与下垫面条件建立了联系，模型物理机制提高且参数的独立性增强，对于新安江模型在无资料地区的应用具有重要的指导意义.  相似文献   

海州湾4种鱼类生长特征的空间异质性     

王琨  张崇良  王晶  任一平 《海洋学报》2019,41(12):62-70

传统的渔业资源评估均假设鱼类的生长参数是匀质的，然而近年来越来越多的研究表明海洋鱼类生长存在空间异质性。为探究海州湾鱼类生长参数的空间异质性现象，本研究分析了2013–2018年海州湾及其邻近海域方氏云鳚(Pholis fangi)、尖海龙(Syngnatus acus)、小黄鱼(Larimichthys polyactis)和赤鼻棱鳀(Thryssa kammalensis)的空间分布，使用电子体长频率分析方法结合Bootstrap重抽样方法估算了这4种鱼类的生长参数及其在深、浅水区域中的差异。结果显示，这4种鱼类生长参数均表现出一定的空间异质性，其中尖海龙和小黄鱼生长参数的空间异质性表现较为明显。这种差异可能是由于空间上的理化条件、群落结构以及物种本身洄游分布的差异而产生的。  相似文献   

Dynamic modeling and vibration suppression for an offshore wind turbine with a tuned mass damper in floating platform     

《Applied Ocean Research》2019

The worldwide demand for renewable energy is increasing rapidly. Wind energy appears as a good solution to copy with the energy shortage situation. In recent years, offshore wind energy has become an attractive option due to the increasing development of the multitudinous offshore wind turbines. Because of the unstable vibration for the barge-type offshore wind turbine in various maritime conditions, an ameliorative method incorporating a tuned mass damper (TMD) in offshore wind turbine platform is proposed to demonstrate the improvement of the structural dynamic performance in this investigation. The Lagrange's equations are applied to establish a limited degree-of-freedom (DOF) mathematical model for the barge-type offshore wind turbine. The objective function is defined as the suppression rate of the standard deviation for the tower top deflection due to the fact that the tower top deflection is essential to the tower bottom fatigue loads, then frequency tuning method and genetic algorithm (GA) are employed respectively to obtain the globally optimum TMD design parameters using this objective function. Numerical simulations based on FAST have been carried out in typical load cases in order to evaluate the effect of the passive control system. The need to prevent the platform mass increasing obviously has become apparent due to the installation of a heavy TMD in the barge-type platform. In this case, partial ballast is substituted for the equal mass of the tuned mass damper, and then the vibration mitigation is simulated in five typical load cases. The results show that the passive control can improve the dynamic responses of the barge-type wind turbine by placing a TMD in the floating platform. Through replacing partial ballast with a uniform mass of the tuned mass damper, a significant reduction of the dynamic response is also observed in simulation results for the barge-type floating structure.  相似文献   

Sea state estimation using multiple ships simultaneously as sailing wave buoys     

《Applied Ocean Research》2019

The article presents initial ideas towards a network-based approach for sea state estimation used for marine operations and other maritime applications. In principle, all available means, ranging from in situ buoys, fleet of ships to remote sensing by satellite and aircraft, could be considered, emphasising that each means and any combinations among may act simultaneously. This study focuses on just one of the means; the use of ships as sailing wave buoys. The article introduces the wave buoy analogy, i.e. ship-as-a-wave-buoy, and it makes a proposal on how to impose (different) weights to the single ship-specific wave spectrum estimates obtained from multiple ships. Moreover, the work includes a discussion about the importance to associate a measure to reflect the (un)certainty of the wave spectrum estimate. The article presents a numerical case study, where multiple ships act simultaneously as wave spectrum-estimators. The case study relies on numerical motion simulations, as appropriate full-scale data is not yet available. In the analysis, it is shown that the use of simultaneous data from multiple ships leads to more accurate wave spectrum estimations.  相似文献   

Evaporation modelling by heuristic regression approaches using only temperature data   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Ozgur Kisi  Salim Heddam 《水文科学杂志》2019,64(6):653-672

Accurate estimation of pan evaporation (E_pan) is very important in water resources management, irrigation scheduling and water budget of lakes. This study investigates the accuracy of two heuristic regression approaches, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and M5 model tree (M5Tree) in estimating pan evaporation using only temperature data as input. Monthly minimum temperature, maximum temperature and E_pan data from three Turkish stations were used, with month number (periodicity information) added as input to see its effect on estimation accuracy. The models were compared with the calibrated Hargreaves-Samani (CHS), Stephens-Stewart (SS) and multiple linear regression methods. Three different train-test splitting strategies (50%–50%, 60%–40% and 75%–25%) were employed for better evaluation of the applied methods. The results show that the MARS method generally estimated monthly E_pan with higher accuracy compared to the M5Tree, CHS and SS methods. When extraterrestrial radiation, calculated from Julian date and latitude information, was used as input to the SS instead of solar radiation, satisfactory estimates were obtained. A positive effect on model accuracy was observed when involving periodicity information in inputs and increasing training data length.  相似文献   

Non-point source pollution estimation in the Pingqiao River Basin,China, using a spatial hydrograph-separation approach     

Han Xue  Kaoru Takara  Bin He  Guangwei Huang  Weili Duan 《水文科学杂志》2019,64(8):962-973

For efficient and targeted management, this study demonstrates a recently developed non-point source (NPS) pollution model for a year-long estimation in the Pingqiao River Basin (22.3 km²) in China. This simple but physically reasonable model estimates NPS export in terms of land use by reflecting spatial hydrological features and source runoff measurements under different land-use types. The NPS export was separately analysed by a distributed hydrological model, a spatial hydrograph-separation technique, and an empirical water quality sub-model. Simulation results suggest that 57 890 kg of total nitrogen (TN) and 1148 kg of total phosphorus (TP) were delivered. The results, validated with observed stream concentrations, show relative errors of 23.3% for TN and 47.4% for TP. Countermeasures for urban areas (5.3% of total area) were prioritized because of the high contribution rate to TN (14.1%) and TP (26.2%) which is caused by the high degree of runoff (8.5%) and pollution source.  相似文献   

Effect of rainfall uncertainty on the performance of physically based rainfall–runoff models     

Ignacio Fraga  Luis Cea  Jernimo Puertas 《水文研究》2019,33(1):160-173

This paper analyses the effect of rain data uncertainty on the performance of two hydrological models with different spatial structures: a semidistributed and a fully distributed model. The study is performed on a small catchment of 19.6 km² located in the north‐west of Spain, where the arrival of low pressure fronts from the Atlantic Ocean causes highly variable rainfall events. The rainfall fields in this catchment during a series of storm events are estimated using rainfall point measurements. The uncertainty of the estimated fields is quantified using a conditional simulation technique. Discharge and rain data, including the uncertainty of the estimated rainfall fields, are then used to calibrate and validate both hydrological models following the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology. In the storm events analysed, the two models show similar performance. In all cases, results show that the calibrated distribution of the input parameters narrows when the rain uncertainty is included in the analysis. Otherwise, when rain uncertainty is not considered, the calibration of the input parameters must account for all uncertainty in the rainfall–runoff transformation process. Also, in both models, the uncertainty of the predicted discharges increase in similar magnitude when the uncertainty of rainfall input increase.  相似文献   

水库温室气体净通量评估模型(G-res Tool)及在长江上游典型水库初步应用     

张斌  李哲  李翀  陈永柏  郭劲松 《湖泊科学》2019,31(5):1479-1488

目前准确量化温室气体排放量已成为气候变化研究和政策制定的关键.在IPCC水库温室气体净通量的概念性框架下，国际水电协会汇总分析了全球223座水库的CO₂和CH₄研究成果，构建了G-res Tool，其可以用于评估已建或待建水库在长时间尺度下的温室气体净通量.本文介绍了G-res Tool模型的基本原理与模型框架，利用模型内置数据库中所涉及的中国长江上游12座典型水库数据进行初步应用分析，12座水库温室气体净通量平均值为88.17 g CO₂e/（m²·a），在全球约7000座水库中所处水平为11.67%，处于低阈值范围.在水库温室气体净通量分析结果中，其他非相关人类活动产生的水库温室气体通量（UAS）在蓄水后总通量（Post）中所占比重远高于蓄水前温室气体通量（Pre）.长江上游水库蓄水后的CH₄和CO₂通量对于温室效应的贡献量相当.通过将G-res Tool模型蓄水后的温室气体通量评估结果和所涉及到的12座水库中已发表的数据对比分析发现，G-res Tool具有简便、适用面广等特点.但G-res Tool毕竟仍为经验性模型，其基本原理和模块设计上的内在缺陷在很大程度上限制了其应用范围并造成了一定的不确定性.对个案水库而言，长期跟踪观测与机理研究仍是未来减少水库温室气体净通量不确定性的关键.  相似文献   

CO2 saturation estimates at Sleipner (North Sea) from seismic tomography and rock physics inversion     

Hong Yan  Bastien Dupuy  Anouar Romdhane  Børge Arntsen 《Geophysical Prospecting》2019,67(4):1055-1071

CO₂ saturations are estimated at Sleipner using a two-step imaging workflow. The workflow combines seismic tomography (full-waveform inversion) and rock physics inversion and is applied to a two-dimensional seismic line located near the injection point at Sleipner. We use baseline data (1994 vintage, before CO₂ injection) and monitor data that was acquired after 12 years of CO₂ injection (2008 vintage). P-wave velocity models are generated using the Full waveform inversion technology and then, we invert selected rock physics parameters using an rock physics inversion methodology. Full waveform inversion provides high-resolution P-wave velocity models both for baseline and monitor data. The physical relations between rock physics properties and acoustic wave velocities in the Utsira unconsolidated sandstone (reservoir formation) are defined using a dynamic rock physics model based on well-known Biot–Gassmann theories. For data prior to injection, rock frame properties (porosity, bulk and shear dry moduli) are estimated using rock physics inversion that allows deriving physically consistent properties with related uncertainty. We show that the uncertainty related to limited input data (only P-wave velocity) is not an issue because the mean values of parameters are correct. These rock frame properties are then used as a priori constraint in the monitor case. For monitor data, the Full waveform inversion results show nicely resolved thin layers of CO₂–brine saturated sandstones under intra-reservoir shale layers. The CO₂ saturation estimation is carried out by plugging an effective fluid phase in the rock physics model. Calculating the effective fluid bulk modulus of the brine–CO₂ mixture (using Brie equation in our study) is shown to be the key factor to link P-wave velocity to CO₂ saturation. The inversion tests are done with several values of Brie/patchiness exponent and show that the CO₂ saturation estimates are varying between 0.30 and 0.90 depending on the rock physics model and the location in the reservoir. The uncertainty in CO₂ saturation estimation is usually lower than 0.20. When the patchiness exponent is considered as unknown, the inversion is less constrained and we end up with values of exponent varying between 5 and 20 and up to 33 in specific reservoir areas. These estimations tend to show that the CO₂–brine mixing is between uniform and patchy mixing and variable throughout the reservoir.  相似文献